Cox Automotive Forecast: New-Vehicle Sales Pace Strengthens in July as Buyers Shrug Off Economic Headwinds

• July's new-vehicle sales pace is expected to finish near 16.7 million, the strongest SAAR of 2026, as buyers shrug off economic concerns.
• July sales volume is forecast to rise to 1.395 million, up 1.2% from June but down 0.4% from last July.
• July has 26 selling days, one more than June and the same as July 2025.

ATLANTA, July 27, 2026 — July vehicle sales are expected to show that new-vehicle buyers continue to largely shrug off any inflation or economic concerns. The SAAR, or seasonally adjusted sales rate, is forecast by Cox Automotive to finish near 16.7 million this month, up slightly from June's 16.5 million sales pace. Sales volume in July is expected to increase 1.2% month over month.

According to the Cox Automotive forecast, the sales pace in July will increase from last year's 16.6 million result, but the volume will be down slightly. There are 26 selling days this July, the same as last year, but one more than last month. The 16.7 million SAAR forecast indicates the sales pace this month will be the strongest year to date in 2026.

Comparisons to last summer show similar momentum but fueled by different market drivers. In the summer of 2025, new-vehicle sales surged in the wake of the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. That new law helped energize the market with provisions that included the September 30th elimination of electric vehicle subsidies. Many buyers rushed to the market to beat that deadline, shifting sales into higher gear. The new-vehicle market is experiencing similar elevated activity this summer, with pent-up demand and record stock market gains, not policy changes, likely the key drivers.

According to Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, "July sales are holding up despite significant economic uncertainty. Stubbornly high gas prices – with no relief in sight – and historically weak consumer confidence have not discouraged new-vehicle buyers, as might be expected. The market today is being driven by more affluent buyers, so they may be less impacted by inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty. If the economy and stock market can maintain their current growing but volatile path, vehicle sales will likely follow."

July 2026 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast

Sales Forecast

Market Share

Segment

July-25

June-26

July-26

YOY%

MOM%

June-26

July-26

MOM

Mid-Size Car

58,389

70,459

70,000

19.9 %

-0.7 %

5.1 %

5.0 %

-0.1 %

Compact Car

95,935

98,138

100,000

4.2 %

1.9 %

7.1 %

7.2 %

0.0 %

Subcompact SUV/Crossover

113,366

124,113

125,000

10.3 %

0.7 %

9.0 %

9.0 %

0.0 %

Full-Size Pickup Truck

193,960

192,307

195,000

0.5 %

1.4 %

14.0 %

14.0 %

0.0 %

Compact SUV/Crossover

250,448

218,796

225,000

-10.2 %

2.8 %

15.9 %

16.1 %

0.3 %

Mid-Size SUV/Crossover

244,610

232,888

235,000

-3.9 %

0.9 %

16.9 %

16.8 %

-0.1 %

Other Segments

443,892

441,237

448,000

0.9 %

1.5 %

32.0 %

32.1 %

0.1 %

Grand Total

1,400,600

1,377,938

1,395,000

-0.4 %

1.2 %

100 %

100 %

Cox Automotive Economic and Industry Insights Estimates

About Cox Automotive

Cox Automotive is the world's largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first- and third-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, auto manufacturers, dealers, lenders and fleets. The company has 29,000+ employees on five continents and a portfolio of industry-leading brands that include Autotrader®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, vAuto®, Dealertrack®, NextGear Capital™, CentralDispatch® and Cox Fleet®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $23 billion in annual revenue. Cox Automotive has been included on Glassdoor's Best Companies in Tech & AI 2026 and Best Place to Work in 2026 lists. Visit coxautoinc.com or connect via @CoxAutomotive on X, CoxAutoInc on Facebook or Cox-Automotive-Inc on LinkedIn.