'Korea can block Delta variant without masks, business bans if 85% are immunized’

The government said Thursday that if the nation’s Covid-19 vaccination rate reaches 85 percent, it can shut off the Delta variant without quarantine measures, such as wearing masks and limiting business hours.

"When the inoculation rate reaches 85 percent, herd immunity will rise to 80 percent," said Kwon Joon-wook, the second director of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters, during a briefing. "In that case, we can suppress even the Delta variant, far more contagious than the existing virus, without prohibiting gatherings or limiting the business of multi-use facilities."

The government has implemented high levels of social distancing measures since the outbreak of Covid-19, Kwon went on to say. On top of it, a strong “personal distancing” named vaccination has sharply increased the effects of the distancing policy.

Kwon stressed that a rise in vaccination completion rate means that the country is enhancing the strongest personal distancing.

"As the inoculation rate increases, its effects will lead to herd immunity, blocking the spread of Covid-19 and reducing the incidence," he said. "The effect of herd immunity hardly appeared when the nation's immunization rate stood at 30 percent. However, when it exceeds 50 percent to reach 55 percent, the herd immunity also reaches 50 percent."

At this point, even if the infection reproduction index rises to 2, the effect of herd immunity will enable the suppression of the epidemic without separate quarantine measures.

Kwon explained that if the inoculation rate rises higher to 70 percent, the country will overcome even the infection reproduction index of 3. If it rises to the 85 percent level, the country can overcome an infection reproduction index of 5, equal to the transmission power of the Delta variant.

However, some experts criticized Kwon's remarks, pointing out that the inconsistent policy message from quarantine authorities regarding herd immunity and social distancing measures might cause confusion.

"The group immunity itself is not a fixed number, but it refers to a state in which the country can lower its social distancing level as the vaccination rate increases," Jang Young-wook, a researcher at Korean Insitute of International Economic Policy, was quoted as saying to Hankyoreh, a local news outlet. "To secure 80 percent immunity at 85 percent vaccination completion rate, the vaccine's effectiveness in preventing infection must be 95 percent."

Jang also stressed that a high-ranking quarantine authority's comment that Korea can overcome the Delta variant without masks a mere day after Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum noted that Koreans would not be taking off their face masks anytime soon is “not a good communication method that gives people false hope.”

Korea has vaccinated 40,185,703 people – 11,097,917 with the AstraZeneca vaccine, 21,292,872 with Pfizer's vaccine, 1,462,034 with Janssen's vaccine, 6,276,261 with Moderna's vaccine – with the first shot of the vaccine up 56,619 from the previous day. The figure accounts for 78.3 percent of the total population.

On Wednesday, Prime Minister Kim said that the government is considering introducing a vaccine pass system to benefit fully vaccinated people. In addition, it plans to adopt a gradual scheme named "living-with-covid" to get back to normal life on Nov. 9.

To do so, the government considers providing short-term treatment for Covid-19 patients at existing hospitals dedicated to infectious diseases before expanding home treatment, which is a key measure for its "live-with-covid" scheme.

"Many ideas for short-term treatment using existing hospitals have been proposed," said Kim Ji-yeon, head of the medical support team at the Central Disaster Management Headquarters under the Ministry of Health and Welfare. "Among them, we are currently discussing the use of hospitals dedicated to infectious diseases."

On Thursday, the KDCA confirmed 1,940 new virus cases, including 1,924 local infections, to raise the cumulative caseload to 337,679. Thirteen more people died of Covid-19, lifting the death toll to 2,618 with a fatality rate of 0.78 percent.

While the daily number of Covid-19 cases has stayed in the quadruple digits since July 7, the government is set to announce its new social distancing rules to include expanding private gatherings to eight people from the current six on Friday.

The government previously decided to extend the current social distancing of Level 4 in the Seoul metro region and Level 3 in the rest of the country until Oct. 17.