Will Korea follow the European footstep of ‘lockdown’?

As the Omicron variant’s spread progresses far faster than expected, an expert has predicted Korea might follow the footstep of Europe, where governments had to take lockdown measures.

Suppose the new Covid-19 cases rise explosively in a short period. In that case, the expert said the current social distancing system would not curb the spread.

Professor Eom Jung-shik of the Department of Infectious Disease at Gachon University Gil Hospital stressed the need for the government to provide a guideline in responding to the future spread of the Omicron variant for the people, appearing at a live broadcast on Friday. The live show was produced and released jointly by the Seoul Metropolitan Government and “I Am a Doctor,” a podcast aired by The Korean Doctors Weekly, the sister paper of Korea Biomedical Review.

On Friday, the daily caseload rose to 109,831, exceeding the 100,000-mark for the first time, according to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA). It took only three days to reach the grim landmark after the number rose above 50,000 earlier the week.

Until recently, experts forecasted that Covid-19 infections would steeply climb from early next month and reach the peak in mid-March before turning downward from May. They also predicted the Omicron wave would end in July.

However, over the past couple of days, some experts said that such a “timeline” would likely be advanced by two to four weeks. If the run-up to peak times gets shorter, the number of infections will surge in a short period, possibly pushing up the number of severely ill patients and posing heavier burdens on the medical system, they said.

On top of that, concerns have grown over the spread of damage due to the government’s partial adjustment of social distancing rules on Friday, signaling the relaxation of virus curbs. That strengthened the voice that Korea might have to prepare for the worst-case scenario, as Europe had to undergo “lockdown” after lowering quarantine levels ahead of others.

Eom Jung-shik, a professor of infectious disease at Gachon University Gil Hospital, said in a live broadcast Friday that as the Omicron variant’s spread is “bigger and faster” than expected, the quarantine authorities should look out for the worst, including a “lockdown,” and explain correctly to the people in advance if needed.

“Some say we can respond to the Omicron variant like influenza, but it is not easy to conclude so based on the current situation because we are at a relatively initial stage of the wave,” Professor Eom said. “At least health authorities and experts need to prepare for the worst. Countries that underwent the Omicron wave ahead of Korea experienced a bigger social and medical gap.”

The live show was produced and released jointly by the Seoul Metropolitan Government and “I Am a Doctor,” a podcast aired by The Korean Doctors Weekly, the sister paper of Korea Biomedical Review.

“If the daily caseload surges to 150,000 to 200,000, the existing social distancing system cannot reduce new cases in a short time,” he said. “In reality, some European countries relaxed quarantine steps and experienced an explosive increase of infections, entering into a lockdown. If we face a similar situation, I guess there will be no other way but imposing a lockdown.”

Eom interpreted the government’s release of business continuity plan (BCP) guidelines to prepare for infections within hospitals and its emphasis on maintaining essential social functions as moves that took such a possibility into account.

Therefore, the government needs to set up the timing and implement standards of lockdown. The people also should be well aware of them and prepare for the worst.

“If the government abruptly says, ‘we have no choice but take a lockdown,’ the public will feel confused. Then, chaos will occur in the preparation process, making efficient control difficult,” he said. “The health authorities ought to seek sufficient understanding of the people through detailed and advanced explanation so that the public can use it as a guideline.”