An example system includes an implantable medical device configured to obtain measurement values of one or more patient metrics; and processing circuitry configured to: determine a baseline value for each of the respective one or more patient metrics based on measurement values of the one or more patient metrics over a first period of time; determine a short-term value for each of the one or more patient metrics based on measurement values of the one or more patient metrics over a second period of time, determine a difference between each of the short-term values and the respective baseline value for each of the one or more patient metrics; determine that a risk of an adverse event occurring in the patient is high in response to the determined difference meeting a respective adverse event risk threshold; and generate for output an adverse event high risk alert.